1 Comment »
I have to confess, I love it when I’m right about Minneapolis duplex sales.
Especially when they’ve gone missing.
You see, all year, I’ve been complaining– well, you might actually call it whining– about the lack of duplexes for sale here in the Twin Cities.
Every week it seems there are fewer new listings than there were during the same week the year before.
For the week ending December 3, 2011, for example, there were just 23 duplexes, triplexes and four unit apartment buildings that came on the Minneapolis and St Paul market.
Compare that with 36 during the same week in 2010.
Of the week’s new listings, 52.2 percent were offered for sale by traditional sellers. Last year, just 27.7 percent of the new listings were.
If you think these weekly drops of 10 – 15 new listings don’t add up, consider this: in 2010, there were 2,320 duplexes made available for sale in the seven county metro area.
To date in 2011, there have been 1572. That’s a decline in inventory of 32.2 percent.
And I don’t know about you, but I personally don’t think there are going to be 800 new listings between now and year’s end.
The week after Thanksgiving saw 20 duplex sellers receive and accept purchase agreements. Of these, just 15 percent were traditional sellers with equity in their investment property.
Last year, that weekly figure stood at 22 purchase agreements, with 36.5 percent of them signed by duplex owners with equity.
The average price the week’s duplexes left the market at was $144,180. While this is sure to drop when sold prices are reported, it is, nonetheless, significantly higher than the $110,200 sold price of last year’s group.
Of course, it isn’t just duplex inventory that’s down. The single family home sector also saw a 9.3 percent decline in new listings. Meanwhile, pending sales were up 36.4 percent over the year before.
If you’re thinking of selling in the spring, don’t wait. Right now, there’s clearly little to no competition for your Minneapolis duplex!
Comment
Outside, the temperature may be dropping as we head into fall, but the Minneapolis duplex market is heating up.
In fact, I had to check my sales thermometer twice this morning.
For the week ending October 15, 2011, there were 34 Minneapolis and St Paul duplexes, triplexes and four unit apartment building owners who accepted purchase agreements for their properties
Compare that to the 16 who did during the same week last year.
This is such a bright ray of sunshine that it would be enough to break out the sunscreen and flip flops if more than 32.25 percent of this year’s sellers had equity in their duplex.
Last year, 37,5 percent of the sellers walked away from the property with money in their pockets.
The average off market list price for the second week in October in 2011 was $118,491. For the same week last year, the average sold price was $118,856.
New listing inventory stayed roughly the same as one year ago, with 37 new duplex listngs hitting the market compared with last year’s 38.
Of these, 59.46 percent of this October’s listings were offered by traditional sellers, not banks. This is up substantially from the 31.6 percent equity sellers for the week last year.
The single family home market also saw a reason to shave its legs and don shorts, with pending home sales up 35 percent over the same week one yar ago.
Meanwhile, new listings were down 17.5 percent for the week, bringing the total available inventory for the year to 22,374 homes; down 21.2 percent from one year ago.
Winter’s coming, whether we like it or not. But it’s starting to look like we’ll have plenty of good news in Minneapolis duplex sales to keep us warm.
Comment
If you’re looking for an “Aha!” moment in Minneapolis and St Paul duplex sales for the week ending September 24, 2011, you’ll have to ask Oprah for it.
Because I’m not finding it here.
There were 23 duplex and small multi family property owners who accepted purchase agreements on their properties for the week. Of these, only six did not need to get a bank’s permission to sell their duplex.
Last year during the same week, just 16 duplex and multi-family property owners received and accepted offers. Of these, four did not need a lender’s ok to sell.
The average list price duplex lisitngs left the market at for the week was $109,201. While this is above last year’s $100,175, it’s important to remember that on average, Twin Cities real estate is selling for somewhere between 8-10 percent less than that off market number.
However, St Paul and Minneapolis duplex buyers got a bit of good news, in that there were 37 new listings to choose from for the week. This is an increase of 13.5 percent over the same week one year ago.
Over in the single family home sector, new inventory continues to dwindle. Last year at this time home buyers had 30,178 houses to choose from.
This year, they only have 23,351.
This drop can be attributed to the continued decline in new listings coming on the market, as well as an average increase of 260 sales every week over last year.
It’s too soon to tell whether this inventory decline is due to the moratorium banks took on foreclosures while they sorted out the paperwork, or a true tightening of the market.
I guess we’ll have to wait a little longer for our epiphany.
Comment
While the world’s smallest man didn’t buy or sell a Minneapolis or St Paul duplex the week ending June 25,2011, the market was, nonetheless, may have been enough of an oddity to qualify for Ripley’s Believe It Or Not .
Twenty duplex and small multi family property owners accepted purchase agreements. This seems like a paltry number; that is, until you consider that during the same week last year, only 11 owners received offers.
Of those who signed offers this year, 45 percent were sellers with equity. Last year? Just 27 percent were.
So this should, in theory anyway, translate to a higher average off market price for the week, right? After all, aren’t bank owned and other distressed properties wholesale opportunities?
Call Ripley’s. Last year’s average sold price for the week was a whopping $200,936. And what was the average price duplexes achieved pending status on the MLS at this year? $142,527.
Last year during the comparable week, 43 new duplex and small investment property opportunities came on the market. Of these, 53.5 percent belonged to equity sellers.
This year, there were just 28 new listings, with 57 percent of these belonging to traditional sellers.
Again, I keep saying it — inventory is down thanks to the banks slowing the foreclosure process. If you’ve been thinking about selling, this might be a window of opportunity.
After all, sooner or later the banks are going to be confident in their paperwork, and start foreclosing on duplex owners.
When that happens, market inventory is sure to rise; once again making traditional sellers a Ripley’s oddity.
Comment
For the week ending April 23, 2011, there was some good news in the Minneapolis duplex market, some not so good news, and some information that was, well, just plain news.
Thirty Twin Cities duplex sellers received and accepted purchase agreements during that week. Of these, 23.3 percent did not have to consult with a lender before agreeing to sell their properties.
This represents a significant improvement from the 18 duplexes, triplexes and four unit apartment buildings that received offers during the same week one year ago. Of those properties, however, it’s important to note that 44.44 percent did not require consulting a lender in the negotiations.
This makes sense, as traditional sellers tried to take advantage of the market before the $8000 first time home buyer tax credit expired on April 30, 2010.
Of course, greater participation by equity duplex sellers usually translates to higher prices. Evidence of this can be seen in an average sold price for the week of $161,333 one year ago, and an average off market price for the week this year of $110,893.
It would stand to reason, therefore, that traditional sellers are not participating in the market as enthusiastically as they did last year. And this is partially true.
There were just 32 new listings for the week; 18 were traditional sellers. This is down dramatically from the 39 equity duplex owners who contributed new listings during the week last year.
But get this. Banks put fewer duplexes on the market in almost the same ratios. Last year, there were 31 new multi-family bank owned listings for the week. This year? 14.
Meanwhile, the single family market was consistent in its patterns of the last several months. New listings were down 30.7 percent, pending sales down 25.2 percent over last year’s tax credit inflated figures, leaving the market with 13 percent fewer homes available for purchase than were last year.
In the coming weeks we should start to get a more accurate read on the true state of the duplex market, as we begin to see year-over-year comparisons, sans the impact of the tax credit.
Comment
The Minneapolis duplex market for the week ending October 16, 2010, was a bit like falling out of an airplane at 10,000 feet. We were a bit higher than last year’s 8000 feet; but the fall hurt just as much.
The number of duplexes, triplexes and fourplexes for sale that received purchase agreements was 21. This is a drop of 16 percent from last year.
Of these, a third were brought to the market by traditional sellers. This is up 17 percent from last year.
At an average off-market price of $120,322; higher than last year’s average sold price of $111,912, the market almost appears as if it’s about to bounce. Trouble is, the average sold price right now is about 6 percent lower than the list price, making it likely prices are roughly the same.
The amount of new duplex inventory coming to the market continued to slow, with just 33 new opportunities presenting themselves for the week as compared with last year’s 42. Traditional sellers represented 45 percent of those new listings, compared with last year’s 36 percent showing.
Single family homes, meanwhile, continued to have fewer new listings year-over-year, with 2.1 percent fewer properties coming on the market than did last year.
However, the number of active MLS listings remains 11.3 percent greater than the same week in 2009. This is a direct result of the 39.2 percent decline in buyer activity from one year ago.
Next week, I hope somebody remembers to pack a parachute.
Comment
I’m starting to feel like the rain is ganging up on us.
The summer has been full of tornado warnings and severe thunderstorm watches that have sent us all scrambling for the basement or at least the comfort of a brightly lit television radar screen. And there’s also been the turbulence of the Minneapolis/St Paul duplex market.
For the week ending July 10, just 9 duplex home owners received and accepted purchase agreements. This was a drop of 65 percent from the number of pended properties for the same week last year.
The average off market price of $176,960 was $29,410 higher than the sold price for last year, and 33 percent of them were offered by traditional sellers.
The other bit of good news was the number of new duplex and multi-family property listings was down 30 percent from last year.
In the single family market, the 545 signed purchase agreements for the week represented a 45.9 percent year-over-year drop.
While the total number of new single family home listings were down 17.4 percent, total inventory continues to grow due to slow buyer demand.
As always, increased inventory results in a shift toward a buyer’s market, which we are in fact seeing. There are currently 7.44 houses on the market for each buyer this month. Last July, there were just 5.06 per buyer.
Let’s hope for sun.
Comment
Ever have a panic attack?
You know– the one’s where you can’t breathe or think?
I had one when I compiled the market statistics for Minneapolis and St Paul duplex sales for the week ending June 26, 2010.
A paltry 12 duplexes received purchase agreements. Twelve. Out of 723 active small multi-family listings in the Twin Cities metro area.
That’s down 37.5 percent from one year ago.
How did I get the color back in my face?
By finding the good news.
Traditional sellers accounted for 33 percent of the week’s duplex sales. Last year, they were just 9 percent of the market.
The average price the dozen left the active duplex market at was $180,808. Last year, the sold average for the week was $113,138.
And, while there were 42 new listings this year, that’s down from last year’s 57. Fifty percent of the new listings will not require a bank to be involved in any negotiations of a purchase agreement. Last year, just 22.8 percent were that hassle-free.
The single family housing market had 47.6 percent fewer pending sales for the week, with 6.5 percent fewer new listings than the year before.
With decreasing demand and growing inventory, it’s no surprise that the 27,526 homes presently on the market is 3.2 percent more than last year. There are now 7.44 homes available for every buyer actively in the market.
I think I need to go meditate.
Comment
Remember the Aesop’s fable about the tortoise and the hare?
You know the one; where the rabbit challenges all the other animals in the forest to a race, and the only one to take him up on it is the tortoise.
Of course the hare finds this laughable and gets so far ahead he decides to stop and take a nap. The tortoise, meanwhile, just keeps plodding along and ends up winning the race.
Well, let’s hope the Minneapolis and St Paul duplex market is like the tortoise because the numbers for the week ending June 5 (which include much of Memorial Day weekend) sure are slow.
According to MAAR, pending single family home sales wer 57 percent behind that seen one year ago. Of course, Memorial Day fell a week earlier in 2009, so that may have had some effect.
Perhaps a more accurate commentary is the total number of purchase agreements signed for the week dropped for the fifth week in a row.
The single family home market has also seen a gradual year-over-year market share increase of lender-mediated inventory. This year, that market comprises 43.3 percent of the inventory on the MLS, compared to 37.8 percent last year.
The week saw equal lumbering along in the duplex and small multi-family market. Pended sales were down week-over-week by what we hope is a holiday-influenced 52.9 percent. The average off market price for these duplexes was $115,200; a number that significantly trails the $129,456 seen for the same week in 2009.
Of the inventory that pended for the week, just 12.5 percent was being sold by a traditional seller. This is up slightly from the 11.76 percent mark a year earlier.
Traditional sellers, did, however, continue to hold their own in new inventory offerings; with 50 percent of the listings. They contributed 47.44 percent one year ago.
If Aesop was right and slow and steady do win the race, then we’ve got some hope. After all, we’ve got the slow part of the equation down. Let’s hope next week brings steady.
Comment
Last week the web site Trulia.com ranked Minneapolis/St Paul number one on its list of America’s Top Ten Cities To Buy Vs. Rent.
To come up with their rankings, Trulia took the average list price of properties on the MLS and divided it by the average rent on a 2 bedroom apartment, duplex, condo or townhouse in the largest 50 markets in the country.
In other words, according to Trulia’s co-founder and CEO Pete Flint, “Home sellers in hard hit areas are forced to lower their prices to compete with all the foreclosures on the market. As a result, these unattainable markets are so affordable it makes better financial sense to buy than rent.”
With the expiration of the first time and repeat buyer tax credits at the end of April, there is much less competition for the good properties in the market.
Call me. It’s a great time to buy.
