The Fallacy of Waiting Until Spring

Every fall countless Minneapolis and St Paul duplex sellers tell me they can’t decide whether to sell then or wait until spring. They believe there is a surge of buyer activity, and they will net more money.

Unfortunately, the facts just don’t support that line of thinking.  Just take a look at the graph.

With the exception of the months of January and February, the Twin Cities duplex, triplex, and fourplex market has averaged about 91.8 sales per month over the last four years.

It takes a lender anywhere from about 30-45 days to fund a loan after a purchase agreement was signed. That means the closed sales activity is actually the result of something that happened 1-2 months before. So January and February’s closed sales are lower for two reasons: 1. There were far fewer listings for buyers to choose from and 2. People who weren’t serious or motivated to buy were distracted by the holidays.

As you can see on the graph, duplex buyer activity is pretty constant year round. And yes, these numbers are only duplexes, triplexes and fourplexes. Houses, condos and townhouses are not included. Believe me, that information surprised me too when I first started tracking the numbers.

The only real change comes in the amount of properties available to buy. And there’s a whole big wave of them that surge onto the market in March and April.

Every property on the market is in a  price war and beauty competition. Buyers are trying to determine which property has the most bells and whistles for the least amount of money. In other words, they are shopping for the best deal.

And when there are more properties to choose from, sellers need to work harder to get their attention. That means more will be expected of a duplex seller in the spring. More sellers competing for the attention of about the same number of buyers.

Call me if you’re thinking of selling your Minneapolis or St Paul duplex and I’ll tell you when and how you can beat the rush.