Conflicting economic stories seem to dominate today’s headlines: the economy’s great, or a recession is on the way. Interest rates are down, while unemployment is up. There isn’t a recession, but one’s on the way.
If the last one is true, that we’re headed for a recession, is there anything a Minneapolis or St Paul duplex owner can do now to prepare? That is, besides pray?
The answer is yes.
1. Shore Up Your Financing
- Lock in fixed rates now if you can. Rising rates plus tighter lending during a downturn can trap you.
- Revisit your loan covenants — lenders get nervous in recessions and may call loans or refuse refis if values dip.
- Keep a cash reserve equal to at least 3–6 months of operating expenses and debt service.
2. Protect Cash Flow Above All
- Remember: Cash flow pays the bills, appreciation is a bonus.
- Focus on solid, middle-market rentals. Luxury units can sit empty when tenants downgrade. Low-end units can get hit by higher unemployment.
- Shorten lease terms slightly so you can adjust rents to market if needed.
3. Get Ahead on Maintenance
- Fix the roof, service the furnace, replace old appliancesbefore a recession when credit is available and vendors aren’t booked out.
- Tenants stay longer in well-maintained units, which matters when demand softens.
4. Stress Test Your Portfolio
- Run the numbers assuming:
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- Vacancy goes up by 5–10%.
- Rents flatten or dip.
- Cap rates expand (values fall).
- If your properties can still break even under that scenario, you’ll sleep easier.
5. Stay Liquid & Opportunistic
- In recessions, distressed deals appear: tired landlords, vacant small multis, short sales.
- Stockpile cash or get lines of credit in place now so you can scoop up properties at discounts.
- Remember: fortunes in real estate are often made during downturns, not booms.
6. Double Down on Tenant Relations
- Tenants are your revenue stream. Treat them well. Communicate early if issues arise.
- Offer payment plans if needed — better than an empty unit.
- Good management = lower turnover, which is gold in a soft market.
Recessions don’t kill real estate wealth. Bad prep does. Investors who head into a downturn with fixed debt, strong reserves, reliable tenants, and well-kept properties usually come out the other side stronger. And if you’re liquid? A recession is when you buy your next duplex at a discount while others panic.